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By Himfr Tian
Industry and various economic indicators from the survey data analysis, the leather industry is facing three years of the most difficult period, international and domestic economic pressures caused by climate change, the Chinese leather industry has entered a “difficult period.” In such circumstances, leather industry is also bound to face many unprecedented difficulties and challenges, and this difficulty is not a short time can be spent.
The first half of 2007 and 2008, China’s leather, fur and products industry remains stubbornly maintained a “slight increase amid stability” of the development trend, producing faster growth, improved profitability, continue to reduce dependence on foreign trade; import and export grew steadily The trade surplus share declined. But specific to different industries, particularly exports can be said that joy and uneven. Leather, fur and leather products, apparel and other industries due to the greater impact of national macro-control policies, a substantial decline in exports, exports of leather shoes, the first drop in seven years.
Failure of some exporters, relocation is a market survival of the fittest, resource costs, tax and industrial policies combined result of adjustment, its essence is a natural process of industrial gradient transfer.
Since last year, quietly accelerated the leather industry to the Midwest and Southeast Asia the pace of the transfer. It is understood that the southeast coast of Guangdong Province in particular transfer of more business, but this shift is gradual, tentative, rather than uprooting the migration. Shift the direction of the remote parts of the province of choice, followed by Southeast Asia and the neighboring provinces of China, such as Jiangxi, Anhui, Hunan, or the domestic industrial base in certain areas such as Sichuan and Chongqing.
These signs indicate that China’s leather industry, after almost three decades of rapid development, which has entered the industrial transfer period. This is undoubtedly the focus of attention of the industry together, to correctly understand the trend of industrial transfer, the transfer to grasp opportunities for development is very important.
History has proved that leather industry transfer is a natural law of market economy, but also industry itself in order to seek sustainable development, structural adjustment, to explore new development model of positive performance through comprehensive analysis, estimated that in 2008 China’s import and export volume will reach 2.6 trillion U.S. dollars in size , an increase of 20%. In 2009, uncertain and unstable factors will continue to increase, the international economic situation, increasing uncertainties on the impact of China’s imports and exports may be further deepened. But opportunities still outweigh the challenges.
By the world economic slowdown and worsening U.S. financial crisis spreading, the domestic economic slowdown, yuan appreciation, the major industry investment rate, and international trade protectionism and other unfavorable factors, China’s export growth this year, significantly down, corporate profits severely compressed, trade environment deteriorating. Past 10 months, the foreign trade situation, the overall situation of China’s imports and exports is good, but the global financial market turmoil is difficult to restore the short term, the international market demand will continue to weaken.
Perspective 1: From the current economic situation, due to multiple factors, China’s economic development is faced with very severe international economic environment has played an important role in economic development occurred in external demand growth slowed, weakening its support, the contribution rate reduce the phenomenon. World Bank expects world economic growth next year, were 2.7% and 2.5%, the US-led economic slowdown in developed countries, obviously, is suppressed demand for commodities in China. According to estimates, the U.S. GDP growth by 1 percentage point per drop, China’s export growth rate will fall 4.75 percentage points; EU economic growth rate dropped 1 percentage point each, the Chinese exports to the EU’s electronic products will fall 15/1000; textile and apparel industry will decline in five thousandths.
Viewpoint 3: Quantitative analysis showed that in the long run, investment, exports and economic growth in China there is only long-term stable equilibrium relationship between investment and exports on economic growth has a positive role in promoting economic growth in exports to China is quite flexible, exports for each additional percentage point of economic growth 0.8150 percent; each one percentage point increase in domestic investment, economic growth 0.4994 percentage points. This fully shows that China’s economic growth has a significant “capital expansion-type” and “export-oriented” features.
Viewpoint 4: Recently, in order to prevent the decline in the domestic economy, China has introduced many initiatives to boost exports to encourage imports. For example, in August this year, early in November and early December raised the export tax rebate rate of 3 times. Early in December will be lower export tariffs on some commodities. Is in a financial “winter” in the Chinese export enterprises are generally processing enterprises, how to survive the long cold winter, is no small challenge. Enterprises themselves to strengthen their own management, strengthen innovation, to change the product mix, hard skills, and according to international market changes, changes in marketing strategies, changes in marketing object.
The current foreign trade operations of the new situation and new problems.
According to customs statistics, 1-October foreign trade volume grew 24.4%. With exports up 21.9% over the same period last year dropped by 4.6 percentage points; imports increased by 27.6%, higher than the 7.8 percent a year earlier. Export growth than import growth by 5.7 percentage points, the gap narrowed more than 1.1 percentage points from January to September. Jan-Oct trade surplus of 216 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.3%.
1. net exports pulling power obviously weak. China’s economic growth, exports are an important driving force. According to the National Bureau of Statistics data show that accounting, in 2007 exports accounted for 37% of GDP, net exports of goods and services contributed to the GDP growth rate of 21.5%, driving GDP growth of 2.6 percentage points. In the first half, net exports of goods and services contribute to economic growth rate of 4.9% over the same period the previous year dropped 16.8 percent, boosting economic growth was only 0.5 percentage points;
2. exports are still down, primary products and a greater number of changes in resource exports. October exports continued to show downward trend, compared with a year earlier, exports increased 19.2%, down 3.1 percentage points. Chain down 2.3 percentage points lower than the 3.4 percent of imports. The largest decline is still processing trade, up 8.5% in the month, down 12.7 percentage points.
3. the import trade has declined, some there volume and price of imports of goods fell. October, import volume grew 15.6%, not only lower than the same month last year 9.9 percent growth rate, and low growth rate of 5.7 percent last month, as import growth this year, the lowest value. Export growth than import growth by 3.6 percentage points, the gap widened 3.4 percentage points from last month. Foreign trade surplus of 35.24 billion U.S. dollars the month, an increase of 29.8%. In the import trade, the decline is the fastest processing trade increased by only 1.9% in the month, compared with a year earlier, down 16.6 percentage points; general trade increased 30.1%, down 7.1 percentage points.
4. traditional goods export and import growth slowed. First, clothing, toys, plastic products and other labor-intensive exports slowed. Autumn Fair this year’s situation, to labor-intensive products such as textiles and garments mainly a significant reduction in third order, the export situation is not optimistic about next year. Second, textile raw materials, paper and paperboard, steel billets and crude forgings and some other resource imports continued to decline. Third, import and export of electromechanical products and high-tech products increased steadily.
5. a record monthly trade surplus, the cumulative trade surplus increase by transferring from the drop. July trade surplus since consecutive monthly increase, growing year on year increase. October trade surplus was 35.24 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 8.1 billion the same period last year, a record high; up 29.8%, higher than the 7.6 percent increase in September. Meanwhile, the accumulated trade surplus shrinking year on year decline, the cumulative surplus in October by the lower increase by transferring. From January to October, total 215.99 billion U.S. dollars of foreign trade surplus, compared with same period last year 2.74 billion U.S. dollars, up 1.3% from January to September was down 2.7%.
6. and emerging market countries, bilateral trade is growing rapidly. In my bilateral trade with major trading partners, the U.S. bilateral trade growth slowing, the rapid growth of bilateral trade with India. China’s bilateral trade with emerging markets are growing rapidly.
India, Brazil, Argentina and other emerging market countries, bilateral trade increased rapidly, partly to fill the needs of the developed economies slow down the space left. In particular, the rapid growth of bilateral trade with India.
To new development opportunities, the formation of scattered development of a new situation.
Transfer of industry to achieve win-win situation we have the European leather industry can learn from the experience of the transfer, but also undertake transfer of the southeast coast of China gained rapid development experiences and understanding. We can expect China’s southeastern coast for a long time, China’s leather industry is still trading, research, information, design, development and brand manufacturing and export center, and move away is labor-intensive processing industries, leaving The added value is in the leather industry the highest part.
At present, although the industry is facing many difficulties, but should see that China has abundant resources of raw materials leather, complete industrial chain, a huge processing capacity, good processing technology and product quality as well as 13 million people, a big market with huge potential These advantages are difficult to match elsewhere in the world, with China’s government recently introduced in the leather garments, fur garments and other leather products export tax rebate up the good policy in the next 20-30 years China will strive to become the world leather production target power still has a strong foundation, which, we are confident.
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